Author Topic: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions  (Read 398025 times)

Offline fdhistorian

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #150 on: January 23, 2016, 12:33:26 PM »
G-Man Theory:

The "G-Man Theory", postulated many moons ago by long-time member (and mean ax-man) Tom Eve (guitarman314), states:

 "For every 10-75 or greater job, the one thing that is most probable is that one or more 1st due or 1st alarm unit(s) is not available for one reason or another."

A corollary to this theory is that if a given unit is out of service for training, Medicals, PM, etc. there will be a big job.

You'll see this theory referenced again and again on this board.

The “G-Man Theory” is an excellent example of ‘good ole’ common sense and intuition expressing observations made over a long time into a theory that is actually based on very sound statistical calculations.

Every unit has a historical unavailability factor based on the percentage of hours that it is committed to responses, training, maintenance, etc.  The addition of EMS responses or the elimination of units contributes to unavailability.  The more responses a unit makes, the greater number of responses it will potentially miss.

The “G-Man Theory” accumulates these unit percentages across all of the units on a first alarm assignment.  For simplicity, if every unit had a 1-in-10 unavailability, the probability that any one unit on the first alarm assignment, without indicating which one in particular, will be unavailable, is cumulative.  If the first due assignment is four units, the probability that one of them is unavailable would be 4-in-10.  Small odds – less than half of the time.  However, when there are 8 units on the first due assignment, the odds are better 8-in-10.  Throw in the BC’s, the Squad and the Rescue and the odds are least 10-in-10 and you get the statistical certainty.  “G-Man Theory” works!

The corollary also works because it applies to “big jobs.”  A 10-75 loads up the 1st alarm assignment and that loads up the probability for the “G-Man Theory.”  But does it only work for 10-75’s?  Actually, it works all of the time overall (time of day is also a factor, but that is another layer of complexity).  However, when a first alarm assignment does not result in a 10-75, it doesn’t get nearly as much attention or discussion because there are fewer adverse consequences.

The "G-Man Theory" is really the "G-Man Effect."  Budget and policy makers should be more aware of it.

Nycfire.net

Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #150 on: January 23, 2016, 12:33:26 PM »

Offline Bulldog

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #151 on: January 23, 2016, 12:34:13 PM »
...Always was and will be a fine line...
A "Fine Line" that you and so many others do a great job balancing on day in and day out!

Offline guitarman314

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #152 on: January 23, 2016, 05:21:01 PM »
G-Man Theory:

The "G-Man Theory", postulated many moons ago by long-time member (and mean ax-man) Tom Eve (guitarman314), states:

 "For every 10-75 or greater job, the one thing that is most probable is that one or more 1st due or 1st alarm unit(s) is not available for one reason or another."

A corollary to this theory is that if a given unit is out of service for training, Medicals, PM, etc. there will be a big job.

You'll see this theory referenced again and again on this board.

The “G-Man Theory” is an excellent example of ‘good ole’ common sense and intuition expressing observations made over a long time into a theory that is actually based on very sound statistical calculations.

Every unit has a historical unavailability factor based on the percentage of hours that it is committed to responses, training, maintenance, etc.  The addition of EMS responses or the elimination of units contributes to unavailability.  The more responses a unit makes, the greater number of responses it will potentially miss.

The “G-Man Theory” accumulates these unit percentages across all of the units on a first alarm assignment.  For simplicity, if every unit had a 1-in-10 unavailability, the probability that any one unit on the first alarm assignment, without indicating which one in particular, will be unavailable, is cumulative.  If the first due assignment is four units, the probability that one of them is unavailable would be 4-in-10.  Small odds – less than half of the time.  However, when there are 8 units on the first due assignment, the odds are better 8-in-10.  Throw in the BC’s, the Squad and the Rescue and the odds are least 10-in-10 and you get the statistical certainty.  “G-Man Theory” works!

The corollary also works because it applies to “big jobs.”  A 10-75 loads up the 1st alarm assignment and that loads up the probability for the “G-Man Theory.”  But does it only work for 10-75’s?  Actually, it works all of the time overall (time of day is also a factor, but that is another layer of complexity).  However, when a first alarm assignment does not result in a 10-75, it doesn’t get nearly as much attention or discussion because there are fewer adverse consequences.

The "G-Man Theory" is really the "G-Man Effect."  Budget and policy makers should be more aware of it.
  Thanks, reading these comments makes me appear to be smarter than I could ever be.  ;)

Offline mikeindabronx

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #153 on: May 14, 2018, 04:37:41 PM »
Thank you Brad

Offline raybrag

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #154 on: May 14, 2018, 05:12:08 PM »
Thanks, Brad.  Of course, you know that this means you've got to keep the list up . . . every time somebody on the list retires, gets promoted, changes jobs, or in the case of the political appointees, gets fired, goes for a greener pasture, etc.  Have fun.  ::) 8) :o
Ray Braguglia
Newport News VA


Online Signal73

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #155 on: May 14, 2018, 05:32:39 PM »
Thanks, Brad.  Of course, you know that this means you've got to keep the list up . . . every time somebody on the list retires, gets promoted, changes jobs, or in the case of the political appointees, gets fired, goes for a greener pasture, etc.  Have fun.  ::) 8) :o

I'll see what I can do
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Online Signal73

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #156 on: May 14, 2018, 07:14:15 PM »
Remember to take it coming in

Offline 68jk09

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #157 on: May 14, 2018, 08:47:00 PM »
DR Kerry Kelly who was Car 30 Retired recently.

Offline CFDMarshal

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #158 on: May 14, 2018, 08:50:22 PM »
Kinda feel for the driver of Car 2 :o

Online Signal73

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #159 on: May 14, 2018, 08:57:03 PM »
DR Kerry Kelly who was Car 30 Retired recently.

I gave it my best shot lol. Got the lists sent to me 4/20/18 lol
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Offline manhattan

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #160 on: May 14, 2018, 09:50:38 PM »
Thanks, Brad.  Of course, you know that this means you've got to keep the list up . . . every time somebody on the list retires, gets promoted, changes jobs, or in the case of the political appointees, gets fired, goes for a greener pasture, etc.  Have fun.  ::) 8) :o

You left out "political appointees being indicted".

capthale

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #161 on: May 19, 2018, 11:38:44 PM »
What does the chief of uniformed personnel do ?

Offline STAjo

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #162 on: August 02, 2018, 11:04:00 PM »

 Great Work on the List, Brad ! Many Thanks !   8)

Online Signal73

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #163 on: August 03, 2018, 06:08:14 AM »
What does the chief of uniformed personnel do ?

I know they are up there in Rank
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Online Signal73

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Re: FDNY: Frequently Asked Questions
« Reply #164 on: August 27, 2018, 04:15:23 PM »
I remember back seeing a question about what CPC & SOC Ladders do & which companies they are

Each answer use to have a link at the end bringing you to which companies they are. Unfortunately the links are not working. So i decided to add which companies are which. The Q&A part has been copied over from the original post which was made by The Late Great Catry

As always Please fill free to make any correction

Q: What is a SOC Support Ladder?
A: The SSLs consist of two pieces: the ladder company and a second supply truck.  SSLs carry a variety of tools not normally carried by trucks that may come in handy in a special operation, including extra rescue tools.  At least 2 SSLs are required to respond on a 10-60.  At times when Rescue and Squad companies are busy an SSL may be assigned instead.

Manhattan:
TL-1 TL-7 TL-17 L-25 TL-45

Bronx:
L-27 L-42 TL-46 L-47 TL-50

Brooklyn:
TL-131 L-132 TL-146 L-169 TL-170 H&L-175

Queens:
TL-117 TL-121 L-126 L-136 TL-144 TL-152 L-150

Staten Island:
TL-77 TL-79



Q: What is a Chemical Protective Clothing Ladder?
A: A CPC truck consists of two pieces: the ladder company and a second supply truck.  CPC companies carry chemical suits used to mitigate HazMat situations, primarily for decon. The CPC role is primarily defensive with emphasis on search, rescue, removal, and decon of civilians and emergency responders.  Their protective gear is tailored to their specific needs, and does not supplement that of the mitigation/offensive-oriented Hazmat and Hazmat Technician units. 

Manhattan:
L-2 H&L-6 TL-9 L-10 TL-12 TL-13 TL-18 TL-21 TL-23 TL-35 R-1

Bronx:
TL-17 TL-33 TL-51 TL-58

Brooklyn:
TL-105 TL-107 TL-111 TL-114 TL-119 TL-120 TL-124 TL-157 TL-159 TL-172 R-2

Queens:
TL-115 TL-142 TL-160

Staten Island:
L-80 TL-87
« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 04:41:51 PM by Signal73 »
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