Could COVID-19 Recession Lead to More Fires?

FDNYrigs

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Jul 4, 2014
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Here's my thinking.  It appears Covid 19 will cause a lot of businesses to close and a lot of people to loose their homes.  With these additional vacant properties, do you think they will be a target for either arson for profit or pyros?
 

nfd2004

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Jun 22, 2007
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FDNYrigs said:
Here's my thinking.  It appears Covid 19 will cause a lot of businesses to close and a lot of people to loose their homes.  With these additional vacant properties, do you think they will be a target for either arson for profit or pyros?
FDNYrigs, I have been discussing that topic with a few friends of mine.

We all feel that if things continue as is, "YES", we could see some businesses take the path of arson. However, these days are much different when it comes to the cause and origin of a fire than years ago. Simply put, it's pretty tough to get away with setting a fire to try and collect the insurance.

Fire Marshalls today have much more high tech equipment to use and "they know their stuff".

Along with that, together we have also discussed an increase in criminal activity. We feel that if it gets to the point of survival, of course more robberies, assaults, etc will tend to occur.

That's my personnel "doomsday scenario". However, as we have seen, there has also been so much good come out of this. People helping each other, day after day, city after city, town after town. It may have brought families even closer together, particularly those with children. Games that we "baby boomers" grew up with are in some cases making a comeback.

And we have certainly learned to greatly appreciate so many who are out there doing the most necessary jobs that we just took for granted before. 

 

kidfrmqns

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Jun 4, 2009
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330
FDNYrigs said:
Here's my thinking.  It appears Covid 19 will cause a lot of businesses to close and a lot of people to loose their homes.  With these additional vacant properties, do you think they will be a target for either arson for profit or pyros?
I think it depends on what our new normal is. If people return to office work in NYC ad Manhattan returns to what it was then I don't think you'll see arson. Property value in NYC is too high for people to burn vacant buildings. It would be easier to sell and move on. However, if people continue to work from home and NYC ceases to be the business metropolis it was and property values fall, then yes I could see wide spread arson.
 

68jk09

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May 6, 2010
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12,467
Two chinese restaurant Fires in eight hours so far today ?
 
Joined
Jun 10, 2017
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I feel one thing we will see at the end of this, an uptick in fire-related deaths and injuries not just in NYC but around the country. I've found locally around D.C that the number of working fires has been less, probably due to everyone at home so nothing is left unattended. Although when a fire does start, we are seeing an uptick in the deaths and injuries from those fires, because everyone is inside and home.
 

FDNYrigs

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Joined
Jul 4, 2014
Messages
47
nfd2004 said:
FDNYrigs said:
Here's my thinking.  It appears Covid 19 will cause a lot of businesses to close and a lot of people to loose their homes.  With these additional vacant properties, do you think they will be a target for either arson for profit or pyros?
FDNYrigs, I have been discussing that topic with a few friends of mine.

We all feel that if things continue as is, "YES", we could see some businesses take the path of arson. However, these days are much different when it comes to the cause and origin of a fire than years ago. Simply put, it's pretty tough to get away with setting a fire to try and collect the insurance.

Fire Marshalls today have much more high tech equipment to use and "they know their stuff".

Along with that, together we have also discussed an increase in criminal activity. We feel that if it gets to the point of survival, of course more robberies, assaults, etc will tend to occur.

That's my personnel "doomsday scenario". However, as we have seen, there has also been so much good come out of this. People helping each other, day after day, city after city, town after town. It may have brought families even closer together, particularly those with children. Games that we "baby boomers" grew up with are in some cases making a comeback.

And we have certainly learned to greatly appreciate so many who are out there doing the most necessary jobs that we just took for granted before.
Real estate prices were extremely high pre-covid, in fact one could argue there was a real estate price bubble in NYC.  The market value of real estate (what a buyer is willing to pay) post covid may be far less than before. 

If owners cant find tenants because of fewer businesses and cant sell because they owe more that it's now worth they face bankruptcy or taking a huge financial loss.  Such buildings could sit vacant for a while.

I hate to be so negative, I'm usually an optimist,  but I see very tough times ahead.  Stay safe everyone!!
 

jlab

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Joined
May 10, 2019
Messages
56
I have been thinking the same thing. My guess would be the small mom and pop type stores might turn to insurance arson as well as larger businesses that were built on debt before the coronavirus crisis hit.
 
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